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Good afternoon, everyone. We'll be taking next week off for the Civic Holiday. Enjoy the long weekend, don't forget your sunscreen, and we'll see you back here on Aug. 10. 

In today’s newsletter:

  1. Poor air quality prompts spending

  2. Markets speculate possible Fed rate hike

  3. Coinbase wants to be an “everything exchange”

  4. Trump’s back with more tariff threats

  5. How to make an internship count


Leah Golob

People spend more when the air quality is poor

Spent too much on concert tickets the other week? “The air was polluted” might just be a valid excuse. Higher levels of air pollution, measured by the air quality index (AQI), have been linked to increased consumer spending, particularly on feel-good categories like entertainment and leisure, according to one study. The researchers say polluted air can create "feelings of discomfort," causing consumers to turn to retail therapy for an emotional pick-me-up. Hey, if it's in your budget, no harm done. But if it becomes a problem, it may be worth paying closer attention to your mood the next time you get an air quality alert. 

Markets ramp up bets on a Fed rate hike

The odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike are climbing. Oil prices jumped above US$100 a barrel for the first time since May (though they have fallen today after a lull in fighting), leading investors to reconsider whether the Fed will raise interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday. Markets now see a 36 per cent chance of a quarter-point hike, up from less than 10 per cent just a week ago. Strong economic data, including the lowest U.S. weekly jobless claims since 1969, also strengthens the case for higher rates. Even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged (still the most likely outcome), investors are betting the central bank will raise rates by September. 

SPONSORED BY RBC RACE FOR KIDS

One race can change a young person's life

Youth mental health challenges are rising across Canada, and too many young people are waiting too long to get the support they need. The barriers to timely care are real, and the consequences of delays are serious.

Sunnybrook's Family Navigation Project (FNP) is working to change that. Clinically trained navigators help youth aged 11 to 29 and their families connect with the right mental health and addiction services faster. Since 2013, more than $29 million has been raised to make that possible.

Your participation in the RBC Race for the Kids directly funds this work. Here's what your involvement means:

  • You help break down barriers to mental health care for youth who need it most

  • You raise funds that keep clinically trained navigators on the front lines

  • You earn a personalized race bib when you raise $150 (adults) or $50 (youth) by August 31, 2026

Coinbase wants a bigger foothold in Canada

Coinbase wants to be an investing one-stop shop. The U.S. cryptocurrency exchange is eager to become an “everything exchange” in Canada, meaning investors could keep their financial assets all in one place. Like most fintechs, Coinbase believes the country’s financial system is “due for an upgrade,” BNN Bloomberg reports. The company hasn’t disclosed all the products it will offer, but its exchange in the U.S. lets users trade crypto, U.S. stocks, ETFs, derivatives, and prediction markets from the same app. One product Coinbase confirmed it does want to bring to Canada is crypto derivatives trading. These are contracts that let investors bet on the price movements of crypto assets, such as bitcoin, without actually owning them. No hard launch date has been announced yet as Coinbase still has to get approved as a securities dealer with the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. 

More tariffs on the horizon

I'm sorry, but I am once again going to talk about tariff threats. Donald Trump proposed 50 per cent tariffs on a wide swath of Canadian exports, and while they aren't expected to start until August (if at all), some manufacturers say they're already losing large orders from U.S. customers worried about higher costs. According to the CBC, electronics and electrical equipment could be hit hardest, followed by plastics and furniture. Last week, Trump also signed an order imposing 10 per cent tariffs on Canada, along with other countries, citing forced labour in supply chains. CUSMA-compliant goods would be exempt. 

Making the most of an internship

Showing up early won't necessarily make you the star intern, but building relationships might. According to one business professor, interns who grab lunch with co-workers and join them for after-work activities — think kicking around a soccer ball — may have better luck getting ahead than those with their noses to the grindstone. Outside of socializing, interns should always ask questions and seek clarity when an assignment seems a bit hazy. Interns are sometimes too embarrassed to ask for help, fearing they’ll look incompetent. Instead, they just waste everyone’s time. And for those stuck with boring, thankless tasks, like wrestling with the office printer, it's usually best to smile and stick it out (unless you're dealing with inappropriate behaviour). After all, every job has its dull stretches until a new project, or even another season, shakes things up, the professor says. 

  • The cheap, all-you-can-eat buffet is becoming an endangered species in Las Vegas. But some casinos are still holding out, with one independent operator losing up to $2 million a month on restaurants. The owner’s happy to do so, as long as it keeps customers coming through the door. (The Wall Street Journal, Paywalled)

  • WestJet is offering customers the chance to make one-time changes to their flights ahead of a possible strike. The flexible travel policy applies to those flying between July 30 and August 4.  

  • Are senior discounts actually worth it? While seniors can get some good deals, “it’s critical to remember that retailers are offering these discounts to sell you more — not to be nice,” the Globe and Mail reports. (Paywalled

  • Financial abuse can be difficult to recognize, and those experiencing it may be too afraid or ashamed to seek help. Abuse might look like preventing a partner from accessing bank accounts, sabotaging their employment or coercing them into taking out a loan or credit card in their own name. 

  • Any mortgage rate that starts with a three, or close to it, isn't "too high,” says mortgage strategist Robert McLister. And if Canada's five-year bond yield climbs to a new multi-year high, expect fixed mortgage rates to follow. 

  • TD Moneytalk looks at the investment thesis for robotics companies. Brokers are looking at 6 million robots sold per year by 2035. […] Cumulatively, that would be 17 million robots placed by 2035.”

  • AI just flunked a performance review. Over a third of Canadian hiring managers who cut staff due to AI have since rehired for the same or similar roles. Turns out AI needed more babysitting than expected, and critical skills and expertise were lost in the layoffs. Point for the humans.

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