Waiting for a rate hike

Good afternoon, everyone. Fresh off the presses: Anthropic, the AI juggernaut behind Claude, has officially filed for what could be a blockbuster IPO. Its paperwork, known as an S-1 filing, shows that while the company’s revenue is growing quickly, it still hasn’t turned a profit, reporting an eye-watering net loss of US$80.7 billion in the first half of 2026.

Even so, private investors are going all in on potential. Anthropic was valued earlier this year at US$965 billion, with estimates suggesting that figure could climb even higher to US$1.5 trillion or even US$2 trillion. That would make Anthropic one of the world’s most valuable public companies, sitting alongside the likes of Tesla. 

In today’s letter:

– Leah Golob

Financial markets are betting on a Bank of Canada rate hike. The central bank is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time in more than three years. It has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent since last October amid economic uncertainty over President Trump's trade war and rising energy prices tied to the war in Iran. But with oil prices surging in recent months, Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that borrowing costs may need to increase if energy prices remain high. Just a week ago, financial markets put the likelihood of a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 at roughly 35 per cent. Those odds have since jumped to nearly 90 per cent. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is expected to hold rates steady.

Questrade is ramping up the competition. The online trading platform is giving eligible investors a chance to get in on AI giant OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, ahead of a potential IPO. Instead of buying shares directly, investors will purchase units in a fund linked to OpenAI’s private shares. The offering is limited to accredited investors and requires a minimum investment of US$5,000. Investors need to act fast, however, as the offer closes Oct. 27. Questrade has also become one of the first Canadian brokerages to offer pre-market and post-market trading for equity options, so customers can quickly respond to earnings, economic data and breaking news before the opening bell. That said, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization has been warning investors about the risks of extended trading hours, such as lower trading volume, reduced liquidity and greater price volatility.

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Trump’s switching up tariffs. The White House is removing 50-per-cent tariffs on certain Canadian products, like seaweed, packing boxes and some plywood sheets, while adding cocoa powder, vinyl flooring and shampoos to the list. The changes take effect at the end of the month. The exemptions are “all about politics,” says a CTV News political analyst. Republican Maine Senator Susan Collins, for example, sought tariff exemptions to help farmers in the midst of a re-election campaign as Americans struggle with affordability. Meanwhile, Trump says he’s close to reaching a “very good” trade deal with Canada.

AI agents are creeping into customer bank accounts. Major U.S. banks are spotting unauthorized third-party AI agents operating inside customer accounts, with some trying to take actions without direct user instructions. One of the big challenges for banks is that it’s hard to distinguish between a human and an authorized bot. As a result, firms like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Bank of America are starting to restrict third-party agents from accessing their platforms. Here in Canada, RBC CEO Dave McKay says the bank is considering blocking Meta’s AI assistant Muse from accessing client information, while BMO CEO Darryl White has warned that AI agents shouldn’t be trusted with personal banking information.

Wall Street’s biggest stocks are losing steam. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, which make up roughly 15 per cent of the S&P 500, are set to report earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. The earnings come as the index’s 10 largest stocks have been struggling to keep up with the rest of the market, holding back the broader index, according to RBC strategist Lori Calvasina. Nvidia, for instance, is down 13 per cent from its all-time high, while Tesla has dropped by 26 per cent. Investors are growing restless over how soon Big Tech’s huge AI investments will pay off, leading some to pull their money out of the sector. Calvasina herself has become more cautious about technology stocks, recently downgrading the sector to a neutral rating. Basically, she’s not hyping tech stocks over the broader market anymore.

Prepared by Peak Money editorial staff

Shawn Filion, Senior Wealth Management Advisor at Desjardins Groups, explains why succession planning needs to start well ahead of retirement, what goes into a solid succession plan, and the biggest mistakes small business owners make when it comes to retirement.

How significant is the coming wave of retirement of small and medium-sized business owners?

The retirement trend among our business-owner clients is significant and consistent with broader changes taking place across Canada. According to Desjardins’ economists, as of July 1, 2026, approximately 36% of Canadians were aged 50 and older, a demographic cohort that is approaching, entering, or already in retirement. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) reports that 76% of small business owners plan to exit their businesses within the next decade, representing roughly $2 trillion in business assets expected to change hands.

For many entrepreneurs, their business is not only their life's work but also their largest asset and a key source of retirement income. As such, retirement planning extends well beyond succession. It involves preserving business value, generating retirement income and creating a plan to transfer wealth to future generations. In today's uncertain economic environment, early planning is more important than ever.

If a small business owner is thinking about retiring, what steps do they need to take? And how early do they need to start planning?

We often recommend starting these conversations up to 10 years before an anticipated transition. The first step is understanding personal retirement goals and determining how much income will be needed to support them. From there, owners should evaluate succession options, review their corporate structure and understand the tax implications of different transition strategies.

It's also important to understand what the business is worth today and identify opportunities to increase its value over time. This may include strengthening management, diversifying revenue or reducing the business's dependence on the owner.

Small business owners often have much of their wealth tied up in their business. What's the smart way to get access to this wealth to fund a retirement plan? 

A client of mine said it best “my business is my retirement plan.” This statement rings true for many business-owner clients. In most cases, the value built in the business is unlocked through a sale or ownership transition.

While some transactions involve a lump-sum payment, others are structured over time. Depending on the circumstances, solutions may include vendor take-back financing, family succession strategies such as estate freezes, or arrangements that allow owners to retain income-producing assets like commercial real estate.

The right strategy depends on the owner's retirement goals, tax situation and succession plans. That's why it's important to work closely with a team that includes a wealth advisor, accountant and lawyer.

Ultimately, business owners should view their company as both an operating business and a retirement asset. Protecting and enhancing its value can help create a more secure retirement.

This Q&A has been edited for clarity and length. Read the full Q&A on our website.