The price of tariffs

Good afternoon, everyone. As a Torontonian in the midst of the city’s annual Canadian National Exhibition (CNE) run, my social media is inundated with photos, reels and even news articles about which wacky, and some might say unnatural, foods are worth trying without blowing your budget.

I’m personally at the age where images of a Booster Juice Kraft Dinner Smoothie or Korean Fried Chicken Ramen Taco are enough to make my stomach turn, but for those still eager to try them, my hot take is to go wild. If you’re willing to eat a S’more Deep Fried Pizza Pizza Slice (or Pizza Pizza, in general) before doing the Mega Drop from 33.5 metres, you might not be in the right headspace for rigorous financial optimization anyway.

In today’s letter:

Canada’s counter-tariffs could cost consumers. U.S. imports of food, beauty, and paper products, along with home furnishings, will be slapped with counter-tariffs ranging from 15 to 50 per cent on Sept. 8 if trade negotiations don’t resume. One economist estimates clothing and footwear prices could rise 3.2 per cent, food and non-alcoholic beverages 1.9 per cent, and household goods 6.2 per cent – that’s if retailers don’t eat the cost. The silver lining is that consumers still have some time. Most retailers have enough inventory to last until the end of the year. 

Canadian interest rates are likely to stay put. The odds of a rate hike or cut at Wednesday’s Bank of Canada announcement are slim, according to analysts, as the escalating trade war threatens to both increase prices and slow economic growth. The bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25 per cent, continuing a holding pattern that’s lasted throughout 2026. “The only option for the bank is to wait and see,” C.D. Howe Institute CEO Jeremy Kronick told The Globe and Mail. As of Friday afternoon, financial markets were pricing in a 99 per cent chance of a standstill. 

Youth mental health challenges are rising across Canada, and too many young people are waiting too long to get help. The good news? You can do something about it before the end of summer.

The RBC Race for the Kids on September 19 at Mel Lastman Square supports Sunnybrook's Family Navigation Project, which connects youth aged 11 to 29 with clinically trained navigators who help them access the right mental health and addiction care at the right time. Since 2013, the race has raised more than $29 million for this work.

Here's what your participation unlocks:

Join us for the RBC Race for the Kids on September 19 at Mel Lastman Square. Register and make a self-donation today!

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh raises the stakes for U.S. rate hikes. In a highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday, Warsh said the central bank will have “work to do” if policymakers aren’t confident underlying inflation is returning to its two per cent target. For Warsh, who typically keeps mum on forward guidance, it’s the closest he’s come to saying higher rates may be necessary to ease price pressures. The Associated Press reports the remarks put more pressure on the Fed to hike in September if inflation doesn’t improve. Traders took notice, putting the odds of a September hike at 61.9 per cent, up from 41.4 per cent last week.

The bull market may be here to stay. Economist and independent strategist Edward Yardeni, who correctly called market bottoms in 2009 and 2020 and predicted the tech-driven bull market of the 2020s, now says there’s an 80 per cent chance the good times will roll into the early 2030s, The New York Times reports. He expects the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by the end of the decade, which would amount to a 209.5 per cent gain over the 2020s. Corporate earnings are mainly driving the current rally, he says, with AI “as a source of rising productivity and extraordinary profits.” The wild card is geopolitics, which could shake up the markets and economy at any time.

Your pickleball addiction could finally pay off. As employers face a deluge of AI slop on job applications, recruiters are encouraging candidates to put hobbies back on their resumes. Devoting a line to hobbies and interests was the norm until the mid-2010s, but critics now find it “cringe, irrelevant or amateurish,” The Wall Street Journal reports. For weary-eyed recruiters scanning tons of applications, though, quirky human qualities, “like a canasta addiction or a weakness for pickling vegetables,” can liven up a resume and become an icebreaker in interviews. Just don’t be vague. Almost everyone likes sports, music and food.