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Good afternoon. In today’s letter:

  1. Rents are down

  2. The spring housing market is ‘meh’

  3. A possible bitcoin catalyst

  4. The stock market rally is just AI

  5. Prediction market ETFs hit a snag

Rents fell in April, and B.C. is leading the way down

A new report shows the average asking rent in Canada dropped nearly 5% year-over-year in April to $2,027, marking the 19th straight month of declines. The latest Rentals.ca data shows B.C. is setting the pace, with average apartment rents down almost 6% to $2,336, ahead of Ontario (-5% to $2,216), Alberta (-3%) and Quebec (-2%). Apartment rents fell across all six of Canada's biggest markets, with Vancouver leading the slide (-5% to $2,679) and Edmonton barely budging (-1% to $1,603). Vancouver rents have now fallen year-over-year for 29 consecutive months, putting the average nearly 20% below the September 2023 peak. In B.C. and Ontario, rents are actually lower than they were three years ago. 

The spring housing market is anything but springy

A new RBC report finds Canadian housing stuck in mixed-results mode this spring, with sellers piling in and buyers staying cautious. Resales picked up in April in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton and the Fraser Valley, while Vancouver, Montreal, Regina and Saskatoon slipped further. New listings hit record highs in Montreal and Ottawa, handing more power to buyers. Prices keep falling in the priciest markets: Toronto's MLS Home Price Index is down 6.5% year-over-year (its 25th straight monthly decline), Vancouver dropped 6.9% (the steepest since 2023), and Calgary slipped 3.5%, with condos hit hardest in every market. Parts of the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are still seeing values climb. RBC says the picture won't clear until economic uncertainty lifts.

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Bitcoin's at a crossroads as CLARITY Act vote looms

Bitcoin is hovering around US$80,000 and analysts say this week could decide which way it breaks. The catalyst to watch is Thursday's markup of the stalled CLARITY Act, which would finally give U.S. crypto markets the regulatory framework they've been waiting on. A recent compromise centres on stablecoin rewards: issuers can keep offering usage-based incentives like transaction perks, but can't pay interest-like returns that mimic bank deposits. That would give the stablecoin payments push some more momentum. Bitcoin ETFs just logged a sixth straight week of inflows ahead of the vote, hinting at strong institutional appetite. With every headline whipping prices around, traders say conviction is thin and the setup is fragile.

The stock market rally is all AI

The S&P 500 has climbed nearly 8% this year, but new data shows almost all those gains are coming from a handful of AI names. A Goldman Sachs ETF that strips AI stocks out of the S&P 500 has actually fallen about 1.5% since launching in February. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector now accounts for 17% of the S&P 500’s total market cap. So if you’ve been wondering why the market seems so sanguine about oil shortages and geopolitical turmoil, this is one reason: it’s all hinging on AI.

Prediction market ETFs hit a regulatory speed bump

The SEC paused 24 prediction market ETFs this week. Once approved, the products would let everyday investors get exposure to markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users bet on real-world events like elections, without actually interacting with the platforms. Roundhill, Bitwise and GraniteShares filed the funds in February, and they were set to launch automatically after 75 days. Regulators want more time to look at liquidity, manipulation risks and how disputed event contracts would settle. ETF watchers say the delay isn't a death sentence, comparing it to the long slog spot bitcoin ETFs faced before approval in 2024. The pause comes as Kalshi just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, double its value six months ago, on an 800% surge in institutional trading volume.

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