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Good afternoon. In today’s letter we’re covering: 

  • GST tax credit gets a top up

  • Why silver is surging

  • Investors bail on private credit

Today’s reading time is 3 minutes.

GST tax credit gets a top up

Source: Unsplash.

PM Mark Carney unveiled an affordability package today centred on a bigger GST rebate. In year one, families will get a bigger tax credit plus a one-time bonus. So a family of four would get $1,890 (up from $1,100) and individuals would get $950 (up from $540). For the next four years, the rebate jumps 25% but that one-time bonus disappears — families get up to $1,400 annually, individuals around $700. The package also includes $500M for food suppliers to boost capacity, $150M for greenhouses and supply chains, and $20M for food banks. The feds are also developing a National Food Security Strategy and implementing new rules around unit price labelling to combat shrinkflation.

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Silver smashes $100 as Trump turmoil sparks rush to safe havens

Source: Unsplash.

Silver blasted through $100 an ounce for the first time Friday, capping a blistering rally that's seen prices jump over 40% this year after more than doubling in 2025. Gold's also hit fresh records, edging toward $5,000. The precious metals frenzy is driven largely by Trump-era turmoil. Tariff threats, Fed independence concerns, military moves in Venezuela, and failed Ukraine peace talks have investors ditching bonds and currencies for hard assets. China's retail buyers have also been piling into silver as a cheaper gold alternative. While a windfall for bullish speculators (and those of us invested broadly in the TSX, which is hitting record highs almost on a weekly basis), the price surge is wrecking the business models of manufacturing businesses — like those that make solar panels — that depend on silver as an input.

Wealthy investors are bailing on private credit

Source: Shutterstock.

Private credit funds marketed to wealthy individuals are facing their first major redemption wave, with some funds seeing 5% to 15% of investors cashing out at year-end — well above normal. Returns from private credit — funds that typically offer wealthy investors access to deals off the public markets, while limiting withdrawals — slumped from 11.4% in 2023 to just 6.2% in the first nine months of 2025, and dividend cuts are triggering the exodus. The $450B industry tripled since 2020 by promising 10%+ yields, but falling interest rates are squeezing loan income. The withdrawals echo Blackstone's real estate fund crisis three years ago, raising fresh concerns about the health of this part of the financial sector.

Freshen up your estate docs

Quick check:

  • Is your will more than five years old?

  • Have there been major life changes since you last updated it?

  • Do your executors still live in Canada and know where to find the document?

Why it matters: Outdated estate documents cause expensive headaches for your family. Executors move, tax laws change, and family dynamics shift. A quick check-up now can save weeks of work down the line trying to clean up an estate that references people and circumstances that no longer exist.

If this is you: Pull out your will and read the first two pages. If the executor is someone you haven't spoken to in years, or if major assets aren't reflected, book a consultation with an estate lawyer. Expect to pay around $1,000 to $2,000 for an update. You can also try an online service — there are a few now that handle this for you. If everything still makes sense and you've had no divorces, deaths, or big asset changes, you're fine. Check again in three years.

WHAT ELSE IS ON OUR RADAR

  • Costco tourism is a thing now: “Some may ask why Costco fans fly halfway across the planet to visit the same temple to excess they have back home. Their response: What better way to understand a culture than by seeing what locals buy in bulk?” (Wall Street Journal, paywalled)

  • Donald Trump will probably appoint a new Fed chair this week. BlackRock’s chief investment officer Rick Rieder is the latest frontrunner.

  • A Danish pension fund is dumping it’s U.S. Treasuries. A sign of things to come if Europe and the U.S. continue to clash?

  • Michael Burry has been buying GameStop stock: “I own GME. I have been buying recently. I expect I am buying at what may soon be 1x tangible book value / 1x net asset value.”

  • Predictions markets have odds of a U.S. federal government shutdown this week at around 80%.

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