Good afternoon. In today’s letter we’re covering: 

Today’s reading time is 3 minutes.

Hope for a quick end to the Iran conflict is evaporating, and markets are repricing fast. Brent crude spiked as much as 29% intraday Monday — its biggest single-day swing in nearly six years — while roughly $6 trillion in global equity value has been wiped out since the war began. Bond yields are climbing worldwide as traders push back rate-cut bets and price in hikes from some major central banks. The big worry now is stagflation: a supply shock that hits growth and reignites inflation at the same time. JPMorgan's trading desk turned tactically bearish Monday, warning that investors aren't positioned for a potential 10% S&P 500 correction — implying a drop to around 6,270 — as traders had been betting on de-escalation that hasn't come.

Canadians are dreaming bigger for retirement but feeling worse about their chances of pulling it off, according to a recent BMO survey. The average retirement target jumped to $1.7 million this year, up from $1.54 million in 2024, and 36% of respondents say they're unlikely to hit it, up from 29% last year. Regional gaps are stark: B.C. residents peg their target at $2.2 million, while Atlantic Canadians figure $928,000 will do it. Meanwhile, 28% of Canadians are saving less than 5% of their income for retirement, and 14% say they don't plan to retire at all, including 27% of Boomers who haven't yet called it quits.

Gen Z has the biggest appetite for risk of any generation. Young adults are turning to sports betting, prediction markets and crypto to build wealth faster because they've essentially given up on the traditional route, according to a recent U.S. survey (though our suspicion is that the same dynamics are playing out in Canada). Nearly a third of Gen Z respondents are putting money into, or considering, sports betting and prediction markets, with 80% believing the riskier path will get them ahead faster than conventional investing. The insurance company behind the survey says that a tough job market, sky-high housing costs and student debt have fuelled "financial nihilism," in which younger people prefer high-risk financial moves over the slow and steady path of earning a regular annual return on relatively safe investments.

Quick check:

Why it matters: Carry-forward amounts reduce your tax bill, but only if you remember to use them. Capital losses offset capital gains indefinitely. Tuition credits reduce taxes owing until they're used up. Many people forget they have these sitting unused, especially if they filed years ago and life got busy.

If this is you: Pull your most recent notice of assessment from CRA My Account. Look for the section called "RRSP and other information." It lists carry-forward amounts for capital losses, tuition, northern residents deductions, and more. If you sold investments in 2025 and you have old capital losses, those losses can wipe out your gains. Make a note for your tax prep.

Not sure I agree “there’s no stopping this”, but interesting chart to keep an eye on…