Good afternoon. In today’s letter we’re covering:
What Trump vs. Powell means for markets
The “Sell America” playbook
Why copper prices are surging
Today’s reading time is 3 minutes.
Trump’s fight with Powell lifts TSX
Source: Federal Reserve video
The TSX rose while other U.S. indexes fell this morning, riding a gold surge after the Trump administration launched a probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell that's sparked worries about central bank independence. Investors piled into safe-haven assets, pushing gold up 2% and silver up 6%, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened to indict him over congressional testimony he gave last year. In an extraordinary video message, Powell called the move a "pretext" to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”
SPONSORED MESSAGE
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The WSJ just reported the highest price ever paid for modern art at auction.
While equities, gold, bitcoin hover near highs, the art market is showing signs of early recovery after one of the longest downturns since the 1990s.
Here’s where it gets interesting→
Each investing environment is unique, but after the dot com crash, contemporary and post-war art grew ~24% a year for a decade, and after 2008, it grew ~11% annually for 12 years.*
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*Per Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd
Is the “Sell America” trade back on?
Source: Unsplash.
Developments south of the border have some investors dusting off the "Sell America" playbook from last April's tariff chaos. Investing in a broad basket of U.S. equities has been a winning strategy for many years now, but as we all know, past performance does not guarantee future results. Strategists say nervous investors could shift to European and Asian stocks, pile into gold (already up 2% on the news), or simply reduce their U.S. exposure. Re-allocating to Canadian stocks is also an option, but of course you have to consider how exposed our economy is to the U.S. The big question: Is all of this temporary noise or the start of a deeper pullback from U.S. assets?
Copper prices are surging on AI appetite
Source: Shutterstock
Copper prices hit a record Monday, up 41% last year, as mining giants scramble to secure more of the metal that's become essential to powering AI. Rio Tinto and Glencore are in talks to create a US$200B+ mining behemoth, joining a wave of copper-focused mergers that includes last year's Anglo American-Teck Resources deal. Driving that price is the expectation that copper demand will outstrip supply by 25% by 2040, with AI data centres alone needing 4.3 million metric tonnes over the next decade, equivalent to a year's output from Chile, the world's top supplier. Electric vehicles, renewable energy and defence spending are also fuelling demand, while new mines take decades to build, pushing companies to buy existing assets instead.
Get ready for tax season
Quick check:
Do you know where your 2025 charitable donation receipts are?
Have you updated your address with all your financial institutions?
Are you set up for digital delivery of T-slips and tax forms?
Why it matters: Tax season is right around the corner, and most T-slips arrive by the end of February. If you're missing documents or chasing down old addresses, you're adding weeks to your filing timeline. Getting organized now means you can file early and move on.
If this is you: Create a folder (physical or digital) labelled "2025 Tax Docs" right now. When slips arrive, drop them in immediately. Check your CRA My Account to confirm your address is current. If you're still getting paper statements, switch to digital delivery through your bank or brokerage portal. You'll get documents faster and they won't get lost in the mail.
WHAT ELSE IS ON OUR RADAR
The ideal level of wealth: Is there a pretty good number that works for most people?
More young couples are getting prenups: “Prenups have also benefitted from a rebrand. In the past, the word conjured visions of a wealthy man trying to sniff out a gold-digger by sealing off his assets. Now prenups are being pitched to young professional women as a way to take charge of their finances and insure better remuneration.” (New Yorker, paywalled)
FT Alphaville’s investor research note on Greenland — from last year, but suddenly relevant again.
Bad news for startups: Canadian venture capital fundraising cratered last year.
People are hiring consultants to maximize the credit-card points they earn from their wedding costs. (Wall Street Journal, paywalled)
