Good afternoon and welcome back from the holidays. In today’s letter we’re covering:
How Maduro’s removal is moving markets
Wall Street’s forecast for stocks this year
When to expect your benefits from the feds
Today’s reading time is 2½ minutes.
How Maduro’s removal is moving markets
Source: White House handout
The U.S. raid on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro sent ripples through global markets, with stocks, oil, gold and even crypto all pushing higher — though Canadian oil stocks were a major exception. The Dow jumped more than 500 points to a record high, while energy stocks surged. Chevron rose 7% and Halliburton gained 8% on hopes of renewed access to Venezuela's massive oil reserves. But Canada’s large oil companies saw their shares fall sharply, with Canadian Natural Resources down around 6% and Cenovus down 7%. Gold surged 2% to around $4,422 an ounce, and bitcoin climbed 1%. Economist David Rosenberg called the U.S. energy stock rally "likely overdone," noting Venezuela's oil industry will take time to rebuild. TD Cowen and Scotiabank analysts agree the near-term oil impact should be limited, as Venezuela's aging infrastructure and heavy crude are marginally profitable at best in today's glutted market. That may mean the sell-off of Canadian energy stocks is also premature (but that is certainly not financial advice).
Wall Street is still seeing green in 2026
Source: Unsplash.
After three straight years of double-digit returns, Wall Street thinks U.S. stocks can keep climbing in 2026. After the S&P 500 surged 16% in 2025, major banks are forecasting more modest gains of 4-11% this year, with targets ranging from 7,100 (Bank of America) to 7,600 (Goldman Sachs). The bull case: a resilient economy, expected rate cuts and corporate earnings growth of around 15%. The bear case: stretched valuations — the S&P 500 trades at 22 times forward earnings versus a 10-year average of 19 — and questions about whether AI stocks can keep delivering. A fourth consecutive year of gains would be the longest winning streak since 2007, which coincidentally (or not?) marked the beginning of the Great Recession.
Mark your calendar: Here's when federal benefit payments hit your account in 2026
Source: Unsplash
If you're expecting money from the feds this year, here's when to watch your bank account. The GST/HST credit — worth up to $533 for individuals or $698 for couples — lands on Jan. 5, April 2, July 3 and Oct. 5. The Canada Workers Benefit for lower-income earners (up to $1,590 for individuals, $2,739 for families) arrives Jan. 12, July 10 and Oct. 9. Canada Child Benefit payments go out monthly starting Jan. 20, while Old Age Security hits accounts monthly beginning Jan. 28. All amounts are based on your most recent tax return, so file on time. The CRA recommends signing up for direct deposit to avoid delays, as paper cheques can lag behind, especially early in the year.
Do some light financial homework to set yourself up for the new year
Quick check:
Do you know what you spent last month without looking it up?
Do you have a plan to contribute to your TFSA and RRSPs?
Have you reviewed your insurance coverage in the past two years?
Why it matters: You don't need a complete financial overhaul in January, but it’s good to know where things stand. Some basic maintenance can go a long way to feeling like you have a solid financial plan for 2026.
What you can do: Check your TFSA and RRSP accounts by logging into your CRA account. Note how much contribution room you have. Takes two minutes, and now you can start thinking about how much to put away each month. Then pull up December's credit card or bank statement and scan for subscriptions you forgot about. Cancel one thing you don't use. That's your reset, and a fine way to start your new year.
WHAT ELSE IS ON OUR RADAR
The Grocery Code of Conduct took effect today. We’re skeptical it will do much to lower food prices any time soon, but we’ll see.
Interesting story in the WSJ today about Hunterbrook, a media company that has a market-beating hedge fund. (WSJ, paywalled)
People are using Hinge and Grindr to find jobs: “About a third of dating app users said they had sought matches for job hook-ups, according to a ResumeBuilder.com survey of about 2,200 US dating site customers in October. Two-thirds targeted potential paramours who worked at a desirable employer. Three-quarters said they matched with people working in roles they wanted.” (Bloomberg, paywalled)
The feds are going to allow more competition in flights from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
