Good afternoon. Today we’re covering Black Friday, another nail in the rate cut coffin, and whether December will bring a Santa Rally or a big ol’ lump of coal.

Today’s reading time is 3 minutes.

The share of Canadians financing Black Friday purchases with Buy Now, Pay Later plans doubled this year. Over in our daily newsletter (and if you aren’t subscribed, now’s a great time to fix that), we cover fresh data from Salesforce showing 5.1% of Canadians’ Black Friday purchases were made using BNPL plans, almost twice as much as last year. Our takeaway: Almost two-thirds of Canadians say the rising cost of living is one of their top three issues right now, and that feeling is borne out in this data. If you’re price-sensitive, waiting for Black Friday deals to make large purchases is a reasonable way to make your dollar go further. But the rise in BNPL usage points to a growing number of people who can’t really afford to make those purchases, even with a discount.

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Turns out Canada's economy has been doing better than the official numbers suggested. Statistics Canada quietly revised up recent GDP estimates, showing real GDP per person hit $60,071 in Q3, meaning living standards have only fallen back to 2022 levels, not 2017 as previously reported. Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt says the revisions suggest there's less slack in the economy than the Bank of Canada thinks, which could explain why core inflation stays sticky. Translation? We might be done with rate cuts for now.

December's here and markets are off to a rocky start, with U.S. tech stocks getting hammered over AI valuation worries. But history suggests reason for optimism: The FTSE 100 has posted gains in 24 of the last 30 Decembers and the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in December nearly three-quarters of the time since 1928. The big catalyst could be central banks: markets are pricing in an 83% chance the Fed cuts rates this month, which typically pulls Canadian and global stocks higher. The Bank of England is also almost certain to That said, AI spending concerns haven't disappeared, the ECB is warning U.S. tech valuations are stretched, and bitcoin could keep sliding as newer investors bail and long-term holders sell. 

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