Good morning. In today’s letter we’re looking at the prospect of higher grocery bills driven by the Iran war, a brutal jobs report, and February inflation coming in under-target.
Today’s reading time is 3 minutes.
Iran war could mean more expensive groceries
Everyone's focused on crude, but the Strait of Hormuz closure is quietly building into a fertilizer supply shock that could hit grocery bills later this year. About a third of global seaborne urea and 45% of traded sulphur move through the strait, and with Gulf exports effectively trapped, the timing couldn't be worse: the spring planting window for many of the world’s breadbaskets closes in mid-April, and skipped nitrogen application means lower crop yields. Analysts see tighter grain inventories by Q3/Q4 and a food inflation impulse with a three-to-six month lag. The shortage could be good news for one big Canadian player, though: Saskatoon-based Nutrien is among the non-Gulf fertilizer producers positioned to benefit, with scale across potash, nitrogen and retail distribution across the Americas.
The job market is getting worse
Canada shed roughly 84,000 jobs in February, the biggest monthly drop in more than four years and bringing total losses to about 109,000 over two months. Full-time, private-sector positions led the decline, with only three of 16 industries adding workers. Young people and prime-age men were hit hardest, and sectors like construction, manufacturing and retail all saw notable drops. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, though that actually understated the weakness since more people stopped looking for work altogether. Some context: the labour market had a surprisingly strong stretch to close out 2025 without a clear driver, so part of this is a reversion to trend. Still, overall employment has barely grown in 12 months. CIBC called the data "very worrisome," noting that trade uncertainty has frozen activity. The weak numbers call into question any talk of interest rate hikes this year, but with so much uncertainty around supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war, even that isn’t a given.
Inflation dipped in February, but don't get too comfortable
Headline inflation cooled to 1.8% in February, slipping below the Bank of Canada's 2% target for the first time since last August. Core measures softened too, with the BoC's preferred gauges averaging 2.3%, tracking below the central bank's own first-quarter forecast. Grocery prices are still running hot at 4.1% but decelerating, rent inflation has come way down from its 2024 peak, and cell bills dropped month-over-month as providers rolled out cheaper plans. The catch: this is likely the calm before the storm. With the Iran conflict pushing Brent crude near US$100, one economist estimates headline inflation could top 3% in the coming months. The BoC decides on rates Wednesday and is widely expected to hold steady again.
FROM THE FEED
Quick check:
Are you using a card that matches your actual spending patterns?
Do you know what your annual rewards were worth last year?
Are you paying an annual fee for benefits you don't use?
Why it matters: If you're paying $120 for a travel card but you haven't flown in two years, you're wasting money. If you're using a no-fee card but spending $3,000 monthly on groceries and gas, you're missing out on cashback. The best card is the one that fits how you actually spend, not the one with the flashiest perks.
If this is you: Pull up last year's credit card statements and add up your spending by category (groceries, gas, travel, everything else). Then compare that to your card's rewards structure. If there's a mismatch, switch to a card that pays more on your biggest categories. Most cards let you apply online and you'll have a new one in a week.
WHAT ELSE IS ON OUR RADAR
NBC: Man uses ChatGPT to sell his Cooper City home: ‘It exceeded our expectations'
Globe & Mail: Mortgage delinquency rate among homeowners with high credit scores increased by 31 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025. Worth pointing out, though, that the mortgage arrears rate is still low — well below where it was for much of the 2010s.
Almost half of all women leaders say there’s been a time in their career that they’ve missed out on business or career opportunities because of their image, according to a survey shared with us by Costigan Studio. Hard to imagine that number is as high for men, though we’d be interested in finding out.
WSJ: “AI is increasing the speed, density and complexity of work rather than reducing it, according to an analysis of 164,000 workers’ digital work activity. [...] AI intensified activity across nearly every category: The time they spent on email, messaging and chat apps more than doubled, while their use of business-management tools, such as human-resources or accounting software, rose 94%.”
Liz Leatrice: “I secretly worked two full time remote jobs. Here's what I learned.”
WIRED: Apple’s new $799 laptop is getting pretty good reviews. “Outside of a couple of missteps, the MacBook Neo is a true budget laptop, done the right way.”
Tyler Cowen: “If strong AI will lower the value of your human capital, your current wage is relatively high compared to your future wage. That is an argument for working harder now, at least if your current and pending pay can rise with greater effort (not true for all jobs).”
